The double sell-out
This is because the way the British and American governments hope to be able to stabilise Iraq, is by involving Syria and Iran in that country's future. But why should Syria and Iran wish to be so involved? Essentially, what can the West offer them? Or, to be more exact, what is it they want from the West?
In the case of Syria, three things: Coming in from the cold, not being treated like a pariah anymore. This is a necessary part of any deal and clearly on the table. Second, the
The involvement of Iran also involves another sell-out. The fundamental issue determining Iranian national interests is that it is Persian, not Arab. Shi’a was imposed on the Persians in the early 16th Century as a means of strengthening that feeling of difference from their Sunni Turkish (and Arab) foes. While Iran does support some of the Shi’a factions in Iraq, others are clearly not enthused by the idea of being dominated by the Persians. Yet involving Iran in stabilising Iraq, will by necessity mean giving Iran a dominant voice in the Iraqi Shi’a regions. It will almost certainly also involve acquiescence in Iran’s continued nuclear program, however phrased to save face.
It is in any case probably impossible to stop Iran from building an atomic bomb, assuming that this is what the Islamic Republic really is intent on doing – as certainly seems to be the case. Certainly, no one is going to go to war with Iran to stop it. The long-term question therefore becomes what Iran will do with its bomb. It is, of course, perfectly possible that Iran will use its atomic bomb to start a war with Israel. Since the Israelis will respond in kind, we will have the world’s first nuclear war. Not an attractive concept.
Assuming, however, that this will not happen, it is clear that Iran will emerge from all this with greatly enhanced status in the region, with two enemies – the Taleban and Saddam Hussein – gone and with the United States humiliated. This means greater Iranian influence in the
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